How to Choose an HVAC Contractor: 12 Questions to Ask
Equipment brand accounts for a small share of how your system performs. Installation quality accounts for most of it. Screen the installer harder than the box.
Heat Pump vs Furnace: Which Actually Costs Less to Run?
The comparison everyone gets wrong, because they compare efficiency percentages instead of comparing the price of a delivered BTU.
In this article
- Compare cost per million BTU, not efficiency
- Where the heat pump wins clearly
- Where the furnace still wins
- Do not forget the second half of the bill
- A practical rule
A 96% efficient furnace sounds worse than a heat pump at 350%. That comparison is meaningless on its own, because the two machines burn different fuels at wildly different prices.
Compare cost per million BTU, not efficiency
The only fair comparison converts everything to dollars per million BTU of heat actually delivered into your rooms.
Natural gas furnace. Take your gas price per therm, divide by the furnace efficiency, and multiply by 10. Gas at $1.40/therm with a 95% furnace works out to roughly $14.70 per million BTU.
Heat pump. Take your electricity price per kWh, divide by the seasonal COP, and multiply by 293. Electricity at $0.15/kWh with a seasonal COP of 3.0 gives about $14.65 per million BTU.
In that example the two are a dead heat. Change either input and the answer flips.
Where the heat pump wins clearly
- You currently heat with propane, oil, or electric resistance. The savings here are dramatic — often 40–65%.
- Your electricity is under $0.14/kWh.
- Your climate is mild enough that seasonal COP stays above 3.
- You need to replace a dying air conditioner anyway, so you get cooling for almost nothing extra.
Where the furnace still wins
- Cheap natural gas combined with expensive electricity — common in parts of the Northeast and California.
- Very cold design temperatures with no cold-climate equipment budget.
- Your existing furnace is under ten years old and working fine.
Do not forget the second half of the bill
Operating cost is only one line. Installed cost, maintenance, equipment lifespan and the cooling you get bundled in all belong in the comparison. A heat pump that costs $4,000 more up front but eliminates a separate $6,500 air conditioner replacement in five years is a different proposition than the fuel math alone suggests.
A practical rule
Run the two formulas above with your actual utility bills in front of you. If the heat pump comes out within 15% of the furnace on running cost, choose the heat pump — the bundled cooling, the better summer dehumidification and the improving grid mix will win over the equipment’s 15-year life.
Last checked August 2026. Prices are US ranges and vary by region — always confirm against written quotes.
